The thinning of the herd


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November 18, 2025 | Read Online

Morning,

Anecdotally and in the news, I hear people talking all the time about how tough it is to raise (retail) investor capital – and my podcast guests have echoed this sentiment, not just for retail capital but for institutional capital too.

The dominant narrative has been that ‘capital has dried up,’ but that is just wrong.

What's dried up is not capital, it's tolerance for weak underwriting, amateur sponsorship, and platforms that marketed real estate as a passive, high-yield substitute for bonds without the institutional discipline to back it up.

Investor sentiment today isn’t a macro headwind.
It’s a credibility filter.

To understand why - and to understand how experienced operators continue raising capital even as others struggle - you have to look at what investors have actually lived through from 2022 to today.

What Retail (Accredited Investors) Went Through

When interest rates rose, cap rates expanded, and transaction markets froze, institutional funds absorbed write-downs and moved on.

Retail had a very different experience.

Consider what happened across the crowdfunding and retail-alternatives ecosystem:

1. Yieldstreet investors saw real losses.

A widely circulated report about Yieldstreet's portfolio found that, of 30 real-estate offerings examined, many were placed on a ‘watchlist,’ with millions in defaults, delays, or permanent impairment. A CNBC investigation highlighted cases where accredited investors believed they were accessing institutional-grade opportunities - only to discover the actual sponsor discipline was far from institutional.

One investor put in $400,000 and expects to lose most of it, after being sold on the slogan ‘invest like the 1%.’ Here on Reddit.


2. CrowdStreet dealt with high-profile sponsor failures.

Accredited investors in the Nightingale fiasco on CrowdStreet, allege that the platform missed obvious red flags, and arbitration claims are now underway. You can read the case summary here.

The fallout has been severe with CrowdStreet’s raises dropping from $40-50 million on a single deal at the platform’s peak, to one tenth of that today.

3. RealtyMogul Sells Out.

Not sure if directly related – the news is very recent and little covered yet – but RealtyMogul just exited the business (did you see that?), selling to the Wideman Company. Whether it speaks to underlying issues with the RM business model, investor trepidation, or other factors is unclear, but either way, there is significant disruption in the industry that can but further unnerve investors.

4. Investors have no-where to go.

The investor relations director of a major multifamily shop contacted me recently as he was considering leaving his current position and moving to another (non-multifamily company) and wanted some advice. He told me that his MFR employer had 30 assets worth some $1.6 billion of which 3 had just gone back to banks and, of the remainder, only 4 were actually solvent.

You don’t read about this stuff because one, sponsors don’t talk about it, two, lenders don’t want it publicly known their CRE portfolios are struggling, and three, investors have no outlet and simply don’t know who to talk to.

In short, the distress in the market that investors are experiencing is far deeper than anything you will find reflected in the press.

And I’m not talking about institutional LPs with 20-year horizons – there’s plenty of analysis of this cohort.

I’m talking about are doctors, lawyers, engineers, business owners - exactly the investor base most middle-market sponsors rely on.

The emotional impact has been profound:

  • They feel burned.
  • They feel misled by branding that implied institutional oversight where none existed.
  • And they now associate those cliched phrases so often used by newcomers to the industry - ‘earn passive income, build wealth, and gain financial freedom’ – with cynicism and risk, not stability.

Yet, and this is critical. they have not abandoned real estate.

They have simply abandoned sponsors they no longer trust.

Capital Hasn’t Disappeared. It’s Reallocating.

Despite the stories above, capital flows into private real estate are not collapsing; they’re rebalancing.

Studies show the same trend: investors still want exposure to real estate, but they want it through:

  • higher-quality operators
  • conservative leverage
  • transparent reporting
  • and strategies that can weather a slower, more rational market

They are not “risk off.”
They are sponsor skeptical.

This is the difference between 2009 and today:

  • In 2009, investors were afraid of real estate.
  • Heading into 2026, investors are more concerned about who is running the real estate.

Why So Many Sponsors Can’t Raise Capital

Today’s raising environment has exposed a truth the bull market concealed:

A lot of sponsors were not prepared to be fiduciaries.

Before the rate shock, many relied on:

  • inconsistent communication
  • floating-rate debt without hedges
  • optimistic rent-growth assumptions
  • cap-rate compression as an exit strategy
  • personal charisma instead of operating discipline
  • and the implicit belief that real estate always goes up

Investors now view those same behaviors as disqualifying.

If you ran a sloppy operation from 2020–2022, you are now finding that investors have quietly (or loudly) crossed you off their lists - not because they dislike real estate, but because they no longer view you as someone who can manage a cycle.

Meanwhile, operators with strong multi-cycle discipline are raising capital more easily than ever, because the herd has thinned.

Sentiment has become a sorting mechanism.


How Elite Operators Are Rebuilding Trust

The sponsors who are thriving right now - raising more capital with less friction - share three traits that reflect exactly what investors want to see as we head into 2026:


1. They communicate like stewards, not marketers.

This means:

  • consistent updates
  • timely tax reporting
  • unemotional reporting
  • clear explanations of risk
  • transparency about mistakes
  • no spin, no hype, no ‘we’re excited about…’ filler

Investors today are allergic to hype.
They’ll take reserved enthusiasm, but most of all, they want exemplary professionalism.


2. They underwrite as if rates will stay higher for longer.

These operators assume:

  • capex buffers
  • slower leasing
  • longer hold periods
  • conservative exit caps
  • flat or modest rent growth
  • and that low levels of debt are the best insulation against market turbulence

If exceptional upside arrives, great.
But the underwriting does not require it.

3. They use systems as infrastructure, not as a replacement for judgment.

A major reason retail investors feel burned is because they were pushed into automated funnels that treated them as ‘leads,’ not partners.

Best-of-class operators use systems to ensure consistency of communication - not to distance themselves from the people entrusting them with capital.

Investors don’t want automation.
They want professionalism delivered consistently, supported by automation.

The difference is everything.

Sentiment Is Rational, Not Fearful

When you tally the evidence:

  • the Yieldstreet losses
  • the CrowdStreet arbitrations
  • the distress hidden under the surface
  • the opaque updates from many sponsors
  • and the rate shock that exposed flawed underwriting

it makes perfect sense that accredited investors are cautious.

But caution is not retreat.

For the right sponsors, this is the most favorable raising environment in a decade.

Not because capital is plentiful.
But because credibility is scarce.

And in a cycle like this, credibility is capital.

***
If you want seasoned leadership in investor relations - someone who understands the psychology of burned investors, communicates with discipline, and can steward your platform through this part of the cycle, I work with a small number of sponsors in a senior advisory capacity.

Let me know if you’d like to explore whether there’s a fit.

Adam

This week's Podcast/YouTube show

Guest: Michael Procopio, CEO, The Procopio Companies

A Developer’s Market When Capital Is Skittish

Michael Procopio runs a fourth-generation, vertically integrated multifamily development company headquartered north of Boston, active across the Northeast, Carolinas, Texas, and Florida.

Typical projects: 150-400+ units; 10-12 active at a time; roughly $300 million of total capital deployed annually across debt and equity. Integration matters: Procopio sources and entitles, often self-performs GC work, and recently rebuilt an in-house, hospitality-driven property management arm, the operational levers that make development pencil while others stall.

Control vs. Capital: The Private Equity Trade

Institutional equity is abundant, until it isn’t. Procopio’s first institutional investor was Carlyle, a baptism by fire that taught him the reporting cadence and governance reality of big-fund partnerships. His blunt summary: “You’re in charge until they decide you’re not in charge.”

Why still do it? Because 95/5 JVs can produce exceptional equity multiples for the GP, leveraging a small GP co-invest into a meaningfully larger share of backend proceeds. The trade-offs: larger minimum check sizes that don’t fit every deal; heavy soft-cost overhead (third-party ‘experts’ on everything from mail rooms to fitness rooms); audited financials; and legal spend that can hit mid-six figures just for loan closings.

Waterfalls tend to be standard, IRR-tiered (e.g., pref to 10%, hurdles at 14–18%+), which can be challenging in today’s underwriting.


Family offices sit between institutions and individuals.

The sophisticated family offices write $10–$25 million discretionary checks and look similar to institutions in docs and decisioning yet think longer-term, are highly tax-sensitive, and are often open to Opportunity Zone investments (OZ), tax-exempt bonds, and depreciation-heavy strategies that institutions, being tax-agnostic, don’t value. The downside: many have small, generalist teams; sponsors must educate.

Individual accredited investors can be powerful in aggregate. Procopio syndicated $52 million on a Boston-area 300-unit deal when New York institutions wouldn’t move but any single group can run dry. The firm keeps all three lanes open (institutional, family office, high-net-worth) to match capital to the right plan and to preserve sponsor control where it matters.

Why Institutions Are “Active” Yet Not Acting

On paper, institutions say they’re open for business especially in Boston multifamily, a top-ranked market. In practice, many are “very skittish.” Some multi-strategy funds are consumed by asset-management fires in lab/office; liquidity management at open-ended vehicles with heavy redemptions also tightens the pipeline.

And career risk runs through development: no one gets fired for buying a stabilized asset below replacement cost though someone might for backing a ground-up deal in a tertiary submarket. The result is a bias to safety and to headlines, even when near-term data obscure medium-term demand.


Micro > Macro: Where to Build When Spreads Look Ugly

Procopio’s stance isn’t “risk-on”; it’s cycle-aware.

He’ll start today where near-term pain is temporary but permits are finite e.g., a Florida submarket with double-digit negative rent growth now, double-digit vacancy in new product, and the fastest population growth in the U.S. three years running. The bet: shovel now, deliver in 24-30 months into normalized supply and healthy absorption, with almost no new permits in the pipeline.

Conversely, he’s cautious in oversupplied nodes (e.g., pockets around Raleigh) until absorption tightens. This is a “micro beats macro” approach: traffic counts, on-the-ground migration, and neighborhood shifts trump TV-studio narratives about entire states.

Policy Reality Check: Tariffs, Immigration, and the Real Cost Line

Hot-button policies matter but not always the way headlines imply.

In the Northeast, higher immigration enforcement hasn’t meaningfully disrupted his job sites; a single apprehension with a criminal warrant is the largest incident to date.

Tariffs? Run the math: materials are around 20% of project cost; a fraction of that is tariff-exposed; and the average tariff rate on that subset may only be mid-single-digits. Net, he pegs the total project impact at “somewhere between 1 and 2%,” a real headwind but not a deal killer provided you resist opportunistic price-hikes from vendors citing “tariffs” as a blanket excuse.

The truly consequential policy locus is local: rent control mechanics, inclusionary zoning ratios, stretch codes, Passive House mandates, embodied-carbon rules – each can break feasibility. In coastal blue states, cumulative policy friction often redirects development (and tax base) to friendlier regimes. The industry’s task is constructive advocacy, showing municipal leaders why “feel-good” set-asides at uneconomic levels simply stall housing.


The Northeast BTR Arbitrage Institutions Miss

Procopio’s most contrarian push is bringing large-scale build-to-rent (BTR) single-family to the Northeast. The comp set up here isn’t new apartments; it’s $1.5–$1.8 million for-sale homes. A $15,000/month ownership carry can be swapped for a $5,000/month rental creating a massive rent-versus-buy spread that institutions accustomed to Sunbelt math may be slow to recognize.

The catch is land and zoning: assembling 75-300+ BTR pads inside 50-minute commutes and educating towns that tightly spaced single-family rentals are “affordable by design,” sticky, and family-friendly.

Done right, BTR frees up boomer-held for-sale stock, captures migrating households, and compounds quietly for long holds.

OZs as a Hedging Tool: Underused and Misunderstood

Opportunity Zones remain one of Procopio’s favorite structures. Family offices sometimes hesitate, but he argues OZs are simpler than DSTs/1031s, allow lifestyle flexibility with realized gains (pay tuition, buy a car, invest the rest), and can deliver full capital return mid-hold via refinance while the project throws off cash. For sponsors balancing control, tax efficiency, and duration, OZs belong in the toolkit especially amid wide bid-ask spreads on land.

What to Watch into 2026

  • The 10-Year and credit spreads.
    Not because the 10-year is magic, but because once BBB bonds yield 8–9 percent while development deals underwrite to the mid-teens, money splits fast. As that gap closes, capital migrates to lower risk yield.
  • Workforce participation and boomer retirement behavior.
    More renters among downsizing boomers and a two-home rental lifestyle (Northeast and Florida) shifts demand.
  • New York policy outcomes.
    Expect higher vacancy of controlled units as owners sit out uneconomic regulations and continued capital/personnel migration to South Florida. If that thesis compounds, Miami-West Palm cements its status as the country’s financial co-capital.

Takeaways for Sponsors and HNW LPs

  1. Own the levers.
    Entitlements, GC, and high-touch operations can restore feasibility where third-party dependency kills margin.
  2. Match capital to plan.
    Keep three lanes (institutional, family office, syndicated HNW) open so duration and control match the real business plan, especially in secondary/tertiary markets.
  3. Underwrite policy locally.
    The 1-2% tariff math pales next to a single uneconomic inclusionary ratio or rent cap clause. Model municipal friction first.
  4. Consider BTR in high-cost metros.
    The rent-buy spread is your friend; teach it to both capital and city hall.
  5. Use OZs intelligently.
    They are flexible, cash-flow friendly, and can de-risk holds while maintaining upside.

***

If you’ve ever wondered how some developers are still breaking ground while everyone else waits for “clarity,” this episode is worth your time.

Michael Procopio walks through exactly how he’s keeping 10–12 projects moving by controlling construction, management, and capital under one roof.

We talk about where institutions have gone quiet, how family offices are filling the gap, and why the Northeast’s build-to-rent math actually outperforms the Sunbelt.

It’s a rare, unvarnished look at how a seasoned operator is navigating high rates, skittish investors, and local politics and still making the numbers work.

If you want a practical view from someone building through the noise, you’ll want to hear this one.

Watch/listen to full episode here.

Please join the conversation on LinkedIn, here.

Or feel free to reply to this email with any thoughts or comments.


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***

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Please note that I am not an investment advisor or attorney and do not make investment recommendations of any kind. Please seek advice from your financial advisor, accountant, attorney, and any other professional in assessing the risks associated with any investment opportunity, as every opportunity has risks that could result in a substantial loss.

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Real estate markets move in cycles, and understanding history is the key to navigating today’s opportunities. As a seasoned investor with 30+ years in the industry, I take a historically informed, risk-averse approach—where capital preservation is the priority. You'll get market insights and investment strategies tailored to both passive investors and capital raisers, with a particular focus on raising private capital. Occasionally, I also share best practices in digital lead generation on LinkedIn and using AI to optimize lead generation. I also introduce my latest podcast and YouTube series, where you'll hear from capital allocators, unpacking trends, strategies, and the future of real estate capital formation. For those looking to invest smarter, raise capital more effectively, and stay ahead of market shifts, The GowerCrowd Newsletter offers a concise yet detailed perspective on the forces shaping our industry.

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