Guest: Lisa Knee, Managing Partner, Real Estate Services, EisnerAmper
A Tax Landscape That Finally Stopped Moving
Lisa Knee, Managing Partner of Real Estate Services at EisnerAmper, works with the full span of owners, operators, family offices, funds and institutions that “touch dirt, own dirt, work with dirt.”
From that vantage point, one thing is settled: the tax landscape has stopped shifting. What has not settled is pricing, risk, and how sponsors should underwrite a very different rate regime. Knee calls today’s environment “certain uncertainty.”
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” clarified tax provisions that matter most to real estate. But capital remains cautious, banks more selective, and investors are still recalibrating what constitutes a fair price when refinancing assumptions, rent growth expectations, and interest rate baselines have all moved.
The practical message is simple. Tax incentives matter. But they are now the stable part of the equation. The hard work is underwriting cash flows, capex and capital structure with a cooler eye than the last cycle required.
What the Big Tax Bill Locked In
Several expiring provisions are now permanent. Section 199A’s 20 percent deduction for qualifying pass-through income stays in place. Reduced US REIT dividend rates remain. And bonus depreciation returns to 100 percent, although “sometimes the fed give and the state taketh away” because many states have opted out, creating timing mismatches.Qualified Opportunity Zones are entering a second phase.
The original program winds down in 2026. Governors will designate new zones, with added emphasis on rural areas. The 2026 blackout remains real: sell in 2026 and tax is due in April 2027, sell in 2027 and you restart the five-year clock. Sponsors are planning ahead. Investors are waiting. Knee is clear: tax benefits are “enhancements.” Underwrite first, then layer in the tax profile.
Affordable Housing: Big A vs. Small a
Knee separates “Big A” affordable housing (tax-credit driven, LIHTC) from “small a” workforce housing that is affordable by design. For Big A affordable housing, the bill simply gives states more LIHTC credits to distribute and makes it easier for projects that use tax-exempt bonds to qualify for the 4 percent version of the credit.
In practice, that means more affordable housing projects can get built, but it also means the value of each credit could slip a bit because there will be more credits in circulation. Small “a” housing has almost no subsidy support. Costs are rising, rents are not, and bonus depreciation is one of the few tools that moves after-tax returns. Developers without credits have very little margin for error.
Capital Is Cautious
Tax certainty has not pulled capital off the sidelines. Investors are struggling with price discovery and questioning whether projected rents, expenses and cap rates are credible across a full hold period. Banks prefer extend-and-amend to foreclosure, and the assets in the headlines tend to be those they want off balance sheet—“maybe or maybe not should have been done in the first place.” Lenders, she says, “certainly do not want them back” as REO properties.
Credit funds still see opportunity in the capital stack. Rescue capital and bridge positions have been part of their thesis “for the last 2 or 3 years.” The distress many expected has been slower and more selective, but the opportunity in structure and complexity remains. Sponsors should assume tighter lender scrutiny and more emphasis on business plans and stress tests.
Flight to Quality, Stress in the Middle
Knee sees a clear performance hierarchy. “The [Class] A’s and the A plus amenities… are not having the problems. The A’s and the D’s do not have the problems. It is the B’s and the C’s” that do. Top-tier buildings continue to lease. D-class product is priced appropriately.
The middle is squeezed: B and C assets face tougher refinancing, capital needs, and tenants who demand better quality but remain cost-sensitive. The easy refinance-and-distribute model is gone. Stabilized rents and true operating performance matter again.The implication is clear. Operators must be honest about where their asset sits in the quality spectrum and adjust capex and capital structure accordingly.
Adaptive Reuse: A Specialist’s Game
Knee is wary of cyclical fads. Office-to-residential and other adaptive reuse plays are technically demanding. “To be able to convert an office to residential is not easy. There are a lot of things that have to be done.”Her analogy is sharp: when everyone rushes into adaptive reuse or data centers “like little kids on the soccer field” chasing the ball, you should worry. These projects work for specialists with deep zoning knowledge and tolerance for surprises, not for generalists attracted by headlines.
Interest Rates and the Limits of Relief
Knee does not expect a return to the zero interest rate policy. “I do not see us going back to 0 or 1 percent.” She anticipates perhaps another point of easing, but not a repeat of the prior era.On housing, she doubts that the much-talked-about 50-year mortgages materially solve affordability.
Monthly payments fall, but lifetime interest jumps. Buyers think in monthly payments, which is why the idea has political traction, but economically it is costly.For CRE, the lesson is not to model dramatic rate relief. It may save marginal floating-rate deals but not rewrite fundamentals.
AI: Help, Not Replacement
Knee’s view of AI is pragmatic. Clients are already using AI in leasing and tenant communications to improve responsiveness. Inside EisnerAmper, the emphasis is on using AI “as a tool and not as a crutch” to preserve judgment.
That is the correct framing. In a market defined by cautious capital, uneven performance, and more complex tax structures, AI can help manage noise. It cannot replace underwriting discipline or operational competence.
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If you would like to contribute to this conversation, I have published some abbreviated commentary on LinkedIn.
Access that post on LinkedIn here.
And click here to listen to or watch the episode.
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If you’re trying to make real investment decisions in a market defined by cautious capital, shifting fundamentals, and an evolving tax code, you’ll want to hear what Lisa has to say.