First time seeing? Sign up here December 10, 2025 | Read Online Morning, Last week’s newsletter laid out ten reasons why commercial real estate is entering one of the most attractive buying windows since 2009, driven by repricing, forced-sale dynamics, and the quiet re-opening of credit markets. Today, I expand on that thesis with a deeper look at four additional macro forces shaping the opportunity ahead. Each of these forces, monetary, regulatory, fiscal, and relative-value, is meaningful...
7 days ago • 11 min read
First time seeing? Sign up here December 2, 2025 | Read Online Morning, The past three years have reshaped the commercial real estate landscape more profoundly than any period since the Global Financial Crisis. Interest rates rose rapidly, liquidity tightened, operating costs surged, and a new generation of sponsors discovered that rising tides do not lift all boats equally. The result is a market many describe as frozen or distressed. But the data tells a more nuanced story. Beneath the...
15 days ago • 13 min read
First time seeing? Sign up here November 25, 2025 | Read Online Morning, Last week’s newsletter focused on what many investors lived through over the last three years and why so many now evaluate sponsors through a far more skeptical, experience-driven lens. The short version: investors aren’t fleeing real estate. They’re fleeing weak operators. The capital is still there, but the tolerance for undisciplined underwriting, thin communication, and amateur behavior has evaporated. This week, I...
22 days ago • 10 min read
First time seeing? Sign up here November 18, 2025 | Read Online Morning, Anecdotally and in the news, I hear people talking all the time about how tough it is to raise (retail) investor capital – and my podcast guests have echoed this sentiment, not just for retail capital but for institutional capital too. The dominant narrative has been that ‘capital has dried up,’ but that is just wrong. What's dried up is not capital, it's tolerance for weak underwriting, amateur sponsorship, and...
29 days ago • 10 min read
First time seeing? Sign up here November 12, 2025 | Read Online Morning, Over the next few weeks in this newsletter, I’ll be making the case for why right now may be the best time since the post-GFC era to get back into real estate deal flow. Each edition will cover a different angle so you can decide not just whether to re-enter the market but how and at what scale. What sparked this series is what I’ve been hearing lately: solid deals are finally emerging as the bid-ask gap narrows, yet...
about 1 month ago • 10 min read
First time seeing? Sign up here November 5, 2025 | Read Online Morning,Have you actually seen what health insurance is projected to cost next year? It’s obscene. A family of four in California will be paying nearly $3,000 a month just in premiums (plus all the out of pocket deductible costs) – more than double this year’s already inflated, subsidized rates. Something is fundamentally broken in America’s healthcare system when premiums compete with housing costs as the highest household...
about 1 month ago • 10 min read
First time seeing? Sign up here October 29, 2025 | Read Online Morning,You can time the market. Yes, you heard that right. The prevailing orthodoxy insists you can’t. The practice of “buy and hold through thick and thin” dominates. But what if the smarter play is acknowledging that yes, you can time markets, provided you recognize where valuations are extreme, where they are depressed, and act accordingly? The folly and the possibility Most investment counsel treats market timing as a fool’s...
about 2 months ago • 7 min read
First time seeing? Sign up here October 21, 2025 | Read Online Morning,Washington is about to open the floodgates.New research from Alvarez & Marsal estimates that a planned rollback of post-2008 “Basel III endgame” capital rules by U.S. financial regulatory authorities, the framework that forced banks to hold more loss-absorbing equity, will unlock $2.6 trillion in new lending capacity and free nearly $140 billion in capital for Wall Street’s biggest lenders.The proposals would scale back...
about 2 months ago • 5 min read
First time seeing? Sign up here October 14, 2025 | Read Online Morning,Every cycle has its moment of euphoria, a period when policy, liquidity, and sentiment all point in the same direction, and capital flows as though gravity has been suspended. That moment is now approaching again. In Washington, the tone of regulation has shifted decisively. The planned rollback of post-2008 “Basel III endgame” capital rules – the very framework designed to prevent another financial crisis – will soon free...
2 months ago • 5 min read