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Here's what I've got for you this week.

1. While you were distracted...
   ​This week we'll see budget negotiations unfold (again) only this time it'll be a battle between who controls Federal purse strings. The result of the negotiations will have profound impact on CRE.​
   ​
2. Cores Real Estate - Sponsored​
   One of our clients is launching a small opportunistic deal in North Carolina in a live webinar this Thursday, March 13 at 5pm PT. More detail here and below.​
   ​
3. Podcast Episode 708: When Capital Raisers Get It Right​
   Amanda Larson, a connection I met on LinkedIn, talks about her path to CRE and capital raising while sharing her tips and tactics - and here concerns about the industry.

Plus, a reminder of two main initiatives this year:

• Investors:​
  I'm looking for stable, light value add/core plus deals with accretive debt and well mitigated downside. Are you seeing that anywhere?
  ​Join my little band of investors here.​
  ​
• Sponsors and Capital Allocators:
  Join the waitlist to get the exact system our clients have used to raise nearly $1bn in equity capital.
  ​Join the waitlist here.​

As always, please do not hesitate to email me directly if you have any questions.
​
Best,
Adam

***

While you were distracted...

Everyone’s watching Trump’s on/off tariffs. The headlines are screaming about Ukraine deals, federal worker purges, and Elon Musk. But a looming threat to commercial real estate (CRE) isn’t in the headlines, it’s buried in how fiscal policy is implemented and the concept of 'impoundment.'

If Trump pulls off impoundment, CRE markets could get shaken in ways investors aren’t ready for. Here’s what that means:

Government Shutdown Risk & CRE Pain

Impoundment is basically a spending freeze at the presidential level, where the President attempts to control funding without congressional approval.

If Trump forces a budget showdown using impoundment:

• Government shutdowns become more likely (watch as it plays out this week).
• Government-funded real estate projects (offices, infrastructure, military bases, and subsidized housing) could stall.
• CRE in Washington, D.C., and government-heavy cities (think Arlington, VA; Denver, CO; parts of Texas) could take a major hit.
• Municipal bonds funding local projects become riskier, leading to higher borrowing costs for real estate developments.
  ​

Interest Rates & Capital Markets: More Volatility

• If impoundment spooks bond markets, yields on Treasuries could spike as investors demand a risk premium.
• Higher Treasury yields = Higher borrowing costs for CRE investors.
• Refinancing risk skyrockets for leveraged real estate deals.
• Properties with floating-rate debt could get hammered (again).
• Expect cap rates to adjust upwards, pushing down asset values, especially in overleveraged sectors.
  ​

Public-Private Partnerships & Subsidized Developments Impacted

• If Trump uses impoundment to cut federal spending, low-income housing tax credits (LIHTC), HUD loans, and infrastructure funding could dry up.
• Transit-Oriented Developments (TODs) relying on federal grants will be frozen.
• Opportunity Zones? If tax incentives get delayed or cut, investment flow could shrink.
  ​

The “Fiscal Autocracy” Factor: Uncertainty Kills Deals

Trump’s approach isn’t just about spending cuts. It’s about who controls the money.

• If impoundment gets challenged in the courts, CRE investors face major regulatory uncertainty.
• Unpredictable policy shifts = Capital on the sidelines.
• Foreign investors, already wary of political risk, could slow down CRE investment in U.S. markets.

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Bottom Line: What CRE Investors Should Watch

1. March 14: The budget deadline. If it fails, expect market turbulence.
2. Interest rates & bond yields: If impoundment causes a sell-off in Treasuries, CRE borrowing costs go up.
3. Government-dependent markets: If you’re holding assets in D.C., defense-heavy cities, or federally subsidized housing, assess your risk now.
4. Uncertainty factor: Impoundment could destabilize CRE capital flows, leading to higher cap rates and lower property values.

This isn’t just another budget fight. If Trump redefines spending power, CRE investors must rethink their entire risk exposures.

These thoughts are not political commentary, they are merely reflections upon current market conditions with an eye on protecting the downside.

I'm trying to make sense of the world today while at the same time looking for CRE investment opportunities. If you'd like to join me, please complete this form, and I’ll be in touch.

Thanks all,
Adam

PS. I wrote about this looming issue on LinkedIn this morning. If you'd like to join the conversation, click here and weigh in.​
​

Sponsored by Cores Real Estate

LAUNCH WEBINAR
​West Oak​

Value-Add Multifamily Investment Opportunity​
​Wake Forest · North Carolina​
​34 Units

Deal Highlights:

• Last sold for $6.25 million in August 2022
• Prior owner spent $600,000 +/- on improvements.
• Cores purchasing for $5.1 million
• Projected investor 16.2% IRR and 1.95x equity multiple

This offering will open to investors during a live webinar, Thursday, March 13 at 5pm PT. Please join us by clicking here.​
​

Podcast/YouTube Show:

Meet Amanda Larson, AMA X Equity
​​
My guest this week, Amanda Larson (whose LinkedIn posts are super-cool - you should follow her) has raised $2M+ in investor capital in just over a year. Specializing in multifamily syndications, she played a key role in the $31M acquisition of The Darby at Steeplechase, structuring the deal and securing a share of the 20% GP split.

🔹 Deal Execution
Sources deals, conducts due diligence, and partners with sponsors to close transactions.
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🔹 Underwriting & Risk
​Applies an engineering mindset, independently verifying financials instead of relying on sponsor pitch decks.
​
🔹 Raising Capital
Leverages LinkedIn and business networking, adapting her content to attract investors.
​
🔹 Lessons Learned​
Floating-rate debt risks were underestimated by even seasoned sponsors. Amanda remains wary of the fund-of-funds model, which may be oversaturating the market with underqualified capital allocators.

Amanda’s approach is methodical, data-driven, and focused on investor protection. She's a great guest - tune in!
​
​​
Quote:

“There are plenty of capital raisers who don't know the first thing about underwriting, and I think that's terrifying.”

Amanda Larson, AMA X Equity

​
​Link to the full episode here >>​

​​If this is your first time seeing this newsletter, please click here to subscribe.​

***

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