Morning,

Before I get into this week’s update, a quick reminder: I’m hosting a live training on July 30 at noon Pacific on How to Raise Capital in Uncertain Markets.

We’ll cover advanced strategies you can use immediately, especially with more maturity defaults headed our way and the passing of the tax bill creating new incentives.

​Register here.​

Let me know if you have any questions.

Best,
Adam

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[Podcast] Guest: Richard Barkham, Global Chief Economist, Global Head of Research (r), CBRE
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A Mild Ending, a Fresh Start and The End of a Cycle Without the Crash​
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After 40 years in the field and a distinguished final act as Global Chief Economist at CBRE, Richard Barkham’s take on the state of commercial real estate is disarmingly calm.

“This has been the mildest end of cycle that we've seen in 40 years – in fact, in my whole career,” he says. Unlike previous downturns - 1989, 2000, 2008 - which were accompanied by macroeconomic crises, today’s cycle-end feels strangely undramatic.

Vacancy rates have risen, prices have declined 25-30%, and capital markets activity has bottomed out, but there’s been no systemic financial collapse.

Why?

In Barkham’s view, the macro cycle hasn’t ended. “We've got the end of a real estate cycle, but no end of the macro cycle.” Yet.

This divergence - CRE in a correction, the economy still growing - frames his optimistic outlook for real estate.

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​Watch or listen to the full episode here >>​

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Stimulus, Not Stability
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​The recent U.S. tax bill has added short-term fuel to the macro picture. Barkham describes it as a “stimulatory” package: it injects fiscal stimulus into an already resilient economy, even if the longer-term consequences include rising national debt and pressure on Treasury yields.

But not all stimulus is equal. Barkham worries that “the higher the debt-to-GDP ratio goes, the more upward pressure there is on the ten-year Treasury,” which forms the basis for CRE pricing. He sees an elevated 10-year yield, anchored in the 4–4.5% range, as a likely headwind for valuations, particularly for highly levered deals.

Still, he believes the U.S. economy can absorb this, at least for now. “The U.S. isn’t going to fall over,” he says. “The tax bill will boost growth, but it will also keep the ten-year Treasury elevated.”

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Banks Are Lending Cautiously
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​Contrary to headlines about a $950 billion wall of maturities and doom-laden refinancing cliffs, Barkham is sanguine about debt markets. He credits both the structural health of CRE and the Fed’s deft handling of last year’s banking turbulence.

Even deregulation in the new tax bill could loosen credit conditions further. Barkham predicts larger banks will expand their share of real estate lending as capital requirements ease. “That just broadens the source of debt, which is good for market liquidity,” he says.
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The Start of a New Real Estate Cycle
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​While macro conditions may be mid-to-late cycle, CRE is in Barkham’s view at the start of a new cycle. The real estate cycle that began in 2014 has ended, and signs of early recovery - vacancy stabilization, limited new construction, and a flight to quality - are evident.

He sees real estate as “very investable right now,” particularly for those concerned about inflation. “If we are in a higher inflation environment - with the stimulus, with the pressure on the Fed politically to bring down interest rates - then I think it’s a good time to invest in real estate.”

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Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Fed’s Delicate Dance
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​Barkham’s macroeconomic outlook is nuanced. While he acknowledges the Fed may eventually ease, trade tariffs and domestic manufacturing policies could delay rate cuts by adding inflationary pressure. “It’ll take a while for the Fed to make sure tariffs don’t feed into second and third round inflation,” he notes.

He pays special attention to real interest rates - the difference between nominal rates and inflation expectations - as a signal of latent financial stress. If inflation surprises to the downside, as it has recently, real rates rise and that can squeeze assets across the economy.But he tempers this with perspective.

“Real estate tends to do quite well over the long term. Not necessarily in the six- or 12-month period, but over time.”

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Sectors to Watch: Healthcare, Digital, and Travel
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​Demographics and technology shape Barkham’s long-term sector views. He sees aging as a structural tailwind but cautions against oversimplifying it. The boomer generation, now in their 60s and early 70s, are not just healthcare consumers, they’re also travelers.

Healthcare and digital economy trends also feature prominently. He encourages investors to monitor how people are working, living, and consuming services. Hybrid work and digital delivery models are reshaping occupier demand and investors must follow these patterns, not just macro charts.
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Final Advice: Keep Leverage Low, Go Prime
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​For those looking to deploy capital now, Barkham’s advice is clear and grounded: “Keep your debt low. Focus on prime grade assets. Invest in the sectors that have the tailwinds of demographics and technology.”The key is to remain alert to tenant exposure and the consumer's vulnerability in any upcoming recession. “Just watch the sensitivity of your real estate to a consumer downturn,” he warns.
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With policy uncertainty, an aging population, and structural change across industries, Barkham offers a final reminder: real estate is both cyclical and structural. The best strategies pay attention to both.
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​Listen to the full episode here >>​

​Join the conversation on LinkedIn here >>​

Best,
Adam

Special Event: ​
​Capital Raising during Uncertain Times ​

July 30, noon Pacific​​
​

I am hosting a special (free) seminar on Wednesday, July 30th, at noon Pacific, where I'll be covering:

-> How to raise capital in today’s hostile environment
Master strategies that work right now - despite rising rates, investor skepticism, and market noise.

​-> Positioning for the crash - and the recovery
Discover how to prepare before the collapse so you're ready to act when distressed opportunities appear.

​-> How to stand out in a saturated capital-raising market
Break through the AI-generated noise and template-driven sameness with authentic, magnetic messaging.

​-> Build a digital marketing system that attracts investors 24/7
From website structure to content strategy to email sequences - learn the full stack that our $30k/month clients use.

​-> Create content that pre-sells you
Win investor trust before the first meeting by publishing what they’re already searching for - delivered in your unique voice.

​-> Leverage social media and AI to scale your reach
Be seen by everyone, everywhere, all the time - without looking like everyone else.

​-> Implement email and webinar strategies that convert
Avoid the #1 mistake others make and use automation to build FOMO and close commitments fast.

​-> Build deal pages that drive capital
Design pitch materials and landing pages that turn “just browsing” into “where do I wire the funds?”

If you would like to join me, please register here as soon as possible - space is limited.
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