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Here's what I've got for you this week.

1. Lessons from the Great Depression - How smart investors turned crisis into opportunity: To better understand today’s uncertainty, I looked at what happened before, during, and after the Great Depression, to see who came out stronger, and why. What I found is a roadmap for today's market, is in this white paper, and is summarized below.​​
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2. Building your network on LinkedIn​
   I have the pleasure of joining an old friend, Vinki Loomba, later this week where I'll be providing a (free) masterclass in generating more leads on LinkedIn. Please join us here.​
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3. Podcast 713: A smarter way to invest in CRE:​
   From physical therapy to real estate capital allocator, Kent Leach of Hickory Creek Capital Partners has raised millions for his sponsor partners. Find out how in this episode.

Plus, a reminder of two main initiatives this year:

• Investors:​
  I'm looking for stable, light value add/core plus deals with low, accretive debt and well mitigated downside. Interested in the same?
  ​Join my investor group here.​
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• LinkedIn Mastermind:
  Dates for my next LinkedIn Mastermind are set - we start April 29.
  ​Learn more and enroll here.​

As always, please do not hesitate to email me directly if you have any questions.
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Best,
Adam

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Lessons from the Great Depression - How smart investors turned crisis into opportunity

I’ve always believed that history is the clearest guide to the future – if you study it without nostalgia or narrative bias. (My Ph.D. is in banking finance history).

That belief feels especially relevant right now.

It’s April 2025. And if you’re in real estate, or any capital market, really, you’ve likely noticed a pattern: volatility isn’t episodic anymore, it’s structural. We swing from optimism about AI-driven productivity to panic over sovereign debt, geopolitical fragmentation, and policy whiplash. And in the background, something more enduring is happening: confidence is eroding.

Confidence in forecasts, in institutions, and in fundamentals that used to anchor decision-making.

So I did what I often do when things stop making sense on the surface.

I looked backward.

Specifically, to the Great Depression. Not as a doomsday comparison, but as a case study in how to thrive during challenging times. Because that era, for all its trauma, was also a masterclass in long-term thinking under extreme uncertainty.

What I found there wasn’t just history. It was strategy.

• A cautionary tale about the dangers of cheap credit and unchecked exuberance.
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• A stark reminder that market corrections often begin quietly, then accelerate faster than most can react.
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• And above all, a set of timeless behaviors that separated those who endured from those who didn’t.

The findings are powerful so I wrote a paper to share with you called Navigating Uncertainty: Great Depression Lessons Applied to 2025’s Macroeconomic Climate.

​You can access it here.​

It’s a framework for prudent real estate investors today.

The core question I tried to answer: What did those who benefited the most during the 1930s do differently and what can we apply today?

There are names we all know – J. Paul Getty, Conrad Hilton, the Rockefellers – but the real insight isn’t in their fame. It’s in their playbooks.

• Getty exited the market early, held cash through the crash, and returned as a buyer when assets were selling at fractions of replacement cost.
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• Hilton lost nearly everything in the early ’30s but instead of disappearing, he negotiated with lenders, stayed operational, and kept his relationships intact. By the 1940s, he was expanding again.
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• Even the Empire State Building, derided at the time as the ‘Empty State Building’ when it opened in 1931, survived by turning its height into a revenue stream. Its observation deck brought in cash when leasing didn’t. That wasn’t luck. That was creative asset management.
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  In today’s terms, we’d call it ‘adaptive reuse.’

The principles haven’t changed. And in times like today's, when noise drowns out signal, it helps to return to those fundamentals:

• Preserve optionality. Cash isn’t just about returns, it’s about control.
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• Be adaptable. If your original business plan no longer makes sense, have the humility to write a new one.
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• Don’t go it alone. Institutions with long-term horizons (think insurance companies, not hot capital) helped stabilize the 1930s’ most vulnerable assets.

And when the moment comes, move carefully, quietly, and decisively.

We're not in the Great Depression.

But debt levels are high. Policy tools are constrained. And the geopolitical order is shifting in ways that may take years (maybe even months judging by the speed at which everything seems to be changing) to reveal themselves.

As real estate sponsors and investors we cannot possibly predict how it all ends. But we can prepare for a wider range of outcomes than most models currently assume.

That’s what this paper is about. Not a prognosis, but a lens.

One final note: The people who emerged from the 1930s stronger than they went in didn’t wait for clarity. They made decisions in the fog.

That’s what makes their stories useful now. Not because they predicted what was coming, but because they understood how to operate when no one else could.

​Read the paper here.​

And if it gives you a clearer lens, or simply a better set of questions to ask, please join the conversation on LinkedIn about how lessons from the Great Depression informs prudent investors today.

​Here’s a link to the LinkedIn conversation - would love to hear your thoughts.​

Adam

Podcast/YouTube Show:

Meet Kent Leach, Hickory Creek Capital Partners
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A former physical therapist turned real estate capital allocator? You read that right. Kent Leach’s path into CRE is anything but conventional - but it’s exactly what makes his story worth hearing!

In this episode, Kent shares how he went from flipping houses to raising nearly $2 million in his first year with the Smart Flex Fund, a customizable fund-of-funds that lets investors handpick their deals across multiple asset classes, including affordable housing, self-storage, and more.

What You'll Learn:

• How Kent negotiates better terms with sponsors through disciplined due diligence
• Why avoiding the multifamily herd saved his portfolio in today's market
• Where he sees the best opportunities as lending tightens and rates rise
• And why fund-of-funds investing isn’t about dilution—it’s about leverage

If you're curious how smart allocators are adapting in today’s market, and how you can partner with them, this episode is a must-listen.

Quote:

"We had a self-storage deal that originally was a 60/40 deal for their investors. We got the 90/10 split with them. It created a deal that made sense for me to get involved in."

Kent Leach, Hickory Creek Capital Partners

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​Link to the full episode here >>​

​​If this is your first time seeing this newsletter, please click here to subscribe.​

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