Here's what I've got for you this week.

1. Cash is boring - until it isn't.
   ​With economic uncertainty rising, I’m leaning toward cash - not as a retreat, but as a strategic move to stay flexible and ready for whatever comes next.​
   ​
2. Cores Real Estate - Sponsored​
   One of our clients is acquiring a small opportunistic deal in North Carolina for about 20% less than the prior owner paid just two years ago. More detail here and below.​
   ​
3. Podcast Episode 707: How to raise $20MM for Real Estate​
   How he finds the time I do not know, but Dr. Raj, a full time pediatric oncologist, has raised $20MM as a capital allocator - almost entirely on LinkedIn.
   ​
4. AI Tool of the Week: Perplexity's Deep Research
   You won't believe the results you'll get with this free new research tool from Perplexity. More info here on LinkedIn.​

Plus, a reminder of two main initiatives this year:

• Investors:​
  I am getting increasingly active in finding personal real estate investment opportunities - with conservative, accretive debt.
  ​Follow my journey here.​
  ​
• Sponsors and Capital Allocators:
  Join the waitlist to get the exact system our clients have used to raise nearly $1bn in equity capital.
  ​Join the waitlist here.​

As always, please do not hesitate to email me directly if you have any questions.
​
Best,
Adam

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Cash is boring - until it isn't.

When markets become unpredictable, having liquidity can be the difference between riding out uncertainty and being forced into bad decisions.

With economic indicators flashing warning signs, I’m having a hard time not going entirely to cash.

Here’s what I’m seeing:

1. Economic Contraction:
​The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow tracker has revised its forecast, now anticipating a 1.5% annualized contraction in the U.S. economy for the first quarter of 2025. This shift from previous growth projections suggests an economic downturn.

2. Inflation Concerns:
​The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is expected to rise by 0.3% in February. While this indicates a slight deceleration, inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, suggesting persistent price pressures.

3. Trade Policy Uncertainty:
​The Trump administration has announced significant tariffs, including a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% on existing tariffs against China – all kicking in today. Such trade policies can lead to increased consumer prices and supply chain disruptions, contributing to market volatility.

4. Consumer Confidence Decline:
The Conference Board reported a 7.0-point decline in the Consumer Confidence Index in February, with the Expectations Index dropping below the threshold that typically signals a recession is looming. This decline reflects growing consumer pessimism about the economic outlook.

5. Business Sentiment Deterioration:
​Surveys indicate a decline in business investment plans and a slowdown in output, suggesting that companies are becoming more cautious amid economic uncertainties and policy changes.

6. Fiscal Policy Shifts:
The House has approved a budget featuring $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and $2 trillion in spending reductions. Funding these cuts may involve deep reductions in federal spending, potentially affecting various sectors and leading to economic adjustments.

7. Potential for Stagflation:
Analysts are increasingly warning of a scenario where economic growth stagnates while inflation remains elevated – aka ‘stagflation’ – which can erode purchasing power and investment returns.

8. Global Trade Tensions:
The imposition of tariffs on European Union imports and threats of further trade barriers can escalate global trade tensions, potentially leading to retaliatory measures and impacting international markets.

9. Market Volatility:
The cumulative effect of trade policies, fiscal changes, and economic indicators contributes to increased market volatility, prompting investors to seek the relative safety of cash positions. (hello!)

10. Policy Implementation Risks: ​
The rapid introduction of significant policy changes, such as tariffs and spending cuts, introduces uncertainty regarding their long-term economic impacts, leading investors to adopt a more cautious stance.

11. Currency Fluctuations:
​Trade wars and economic policy shifts can lead to fluctuations in currency values, affecting international purchasing power and investment returns.

12. Geopolitical Uncertainties:
Engagements in international disputes or realignments, such as the minerals deal with Ukraine, can introduce geopolitical risks that may impact global markets and economic stability.

Staying liquid doesn’t mean sitting on the sidelines – it means being ready.

What’s the worst that could happen from going to cash and waiting? Miss out on the early part of an economic boom?

I can live with that.

Cash isn’t just a defensive move; it’s an offensive strategy when uncertainty is high. It buys time, flexibility, and the ability to move quickly when the right opportunities arise.

Right now, I’d rather be patient than be forced into decisions I’ll regret.

You?

Adam

PS. If you’re an investor trying to make sense of the world today and would like to work through this with me as I evaluate CRE opportunities, join me by completing this form, and I’ll be in touch.
​

Sponsored by Cores Real Estate

ACCEPTING SOFT COMMITMENTS
​West Oak​

Value-Add Multifamily Investment Opportunity​
​Wake Forest · North Carolina​
​34 Units

Deal Highlights:

• Last sold for $6.25 million in August 2022
• Prior owner spent $600,000 +/- on improvements.
• Cores purchasing for $5.1 million
• Projected investor 16.2% IRR and 1.95x equity multiple

Offering not yet live. Please submit your non-binding soft commitment for priority access.
​

Podcast/YouTube Show:

Meet Dr. Raj Venkatramani, REI Doc Capital
​​
My guest this week is a pediatric oncologist full time, and real estate capital allocator part time. He's raised ~$20MM from investors, 95% of whom are doctors, since launching REIDOC Capital in 2021. His typical deal size ranges from $10MM to $30MM, for which he raises an average of $2MM per deal.

Focusing on 100+ unit multifamily properties, Raj targets Class A and B assets and new construction, avoiding Class C after lessons from the 2021 market peak where a poor early investment in Class C Florida saw insurance costs double, and variable-rate debt wipe out NOI.

Leveraging Group Capital

By pooling investors, Raj negotiates better terms, like an 80/20 split and 8% preferred return, versus standard syndications offering 70/30 and 6-7%.

LinkedIn as an Investor Source

90% of his investors have never met him in person and most came through LinkedIn. His strategy? Post consistently for two years, even with no engagement, until investors reach out.

Key Takeaway: Trust but Verify

Unlike medicine, real estate incentives aren’t always aligned. Rigorous due diligence is essential to avoid costly mistakes.
​​
Quote:

"Trust but verify. Not everyone in real estate is working for the benefit of the investor. I learned that pretty quickly. It’s completely different from medicine—there, we all have the same goal: save the patient. In real estate, there can be other conflicts."

Dr. Raj Venkatramani, REI Doc

​
​Link to the full episode here >>​

​​If this is your first time seeing this newsletter, please click here to subscribe.​

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