Date: April 22, 2025​
​
This might be the most important thing I’ve written since the onset of the Great Financial Crisis. If you’re in real estate, I hope you’ll read it.

In early 2007, I was developing the largest small-lot-subdivision project the City of Los Angeles had ever seen and was working through entitlements, construction budgeting, and lender negotiations.

But the subprime mortgage crisis was on the boil, and cracks were beginning to show in the Alt-A market too. I found myself waking up at night (literally) with angst-induced stomach pains. I was worried and didn’t really know why.

Sure, there was turbulence in the market, but the entire real estate world was still chugging along to its usual this-time-is-different destination.

“What am I missing?” I thought at the time.

Eventually, I couldn’t stand the stress so I sold all my holdings. Buyers were easy to find, and I exited completely in August of 2007.

From there, real estate went from bad to worse on a surprisingly steep, downward trajectory. By September 2008, when Lehman Brothers was allowed to fail, the industry was in complete meltdown.

I entered that period with no debt, cash on hand, and no legacy issues.

Ironically, despite the chaos, it was impossible early on to find distressed assets; reality hadn’t yet sunk in for lenders or borrowers. So I took a position at a major bank to help clean up their balance sheet of non-performing, real-estate-collateralized loans.

There was nothing particularly clever about my exit in 2007.

It was a gut feel, triggered by a series of small, anecdotal signals that simply told me it was time to get out.

***

Fast forward to today, and this time is (very) different.

Those small signals that saved me in 2007 are now screaming from headlines:
​
​“GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN. SELL. DEFEND. WATCH. WAIT.”

So in early March this year, one week after the market peak, I liquidated my entire retirement portfolios and moved 100% into interest-bearing cash accounts. (My financial advisor was not thrilled.)

Now I’m looking to sell all my real estate again. And I’m not even sure I’ll pursue a 1031 exchange.

What makes me hesitate?

Not hype or fear-mongering. I focus on what I consider to be high-integrity sources – especially the Financial Times, across print, audio, and video. It’s detailed, pragmatic, and refreshingly free of partisan noise.

And everything I assess, no matter what the source, is through the lens of real estate. And I ask myself:

What is the likely impact of current White House economic doctrine on best-, worst-, and base-case outcomes for real estate?

Indeed, when I took my retirement accounts to cash, I asked myself: What’s my downside of this rash decision? and I realized that the answer wasn’t so bad: Maybe I miss some upside. Maybe I pay more tax.

I can live with that.

What’s harder to live with is the industry’s persistent drumbeat of optimism, as if nothing of consequence is happening on the macroeconomic or geopolitical level.

We’re still parsing cap rates and construction tariffs like these are minor underwriting adjustments. Meanwhile, I think we’re underestimating how foundational the changes underway really are.

“Earn passive income, build wealth, gain financial independence.”
​
That’s the rallying cry.
​
But what happens when the foundation underneath those goals starts to shift?

I’m not claiming certainty. And I’m not rooting for a crash.

In fact, this is the first time in my career I hope I’m wrong.

But if I’m not?

In the weeks ahead, I’ll be speaking with some of the brightest minds in the industry – economists, academics, multi-cycle, seasoned professionals, and respected thought leaders – in a new podcast series:

The Real Estate Market Watch​
​Current Events Through a Real Estate Lens

The goal is simple:
Make sense of what’s happening – without political noise – and explore how it affects real estate directly.

There won’t be a regular release schedule; things are changing too quickly. As events unfold, I’ll publish commentary and episodes as soon as they’re recorded.

***

If you’re reading this and think I’m being overly cautious or dramatic, that’s fine. But let me ask:

How are you underwriting your next deal to protect against the worst-case outcome?

And if this message rings even partially true, please help spread it.
​
Not because I have the answers, but because I’m committed to asking better questions with people who just might.

If you’re still with me, I have three quick asks:

1. Forward this newsletter to someone who should see it and encourage them to subscribe.
​
​Here’s the link to subscribe.​

2. Join my private investor group.
​
I still believe real estate may be the best way to navigate what’s coming – but it requires hyper-focus on downside protection, liquidity, and cash flow. And when I find prudent opportunities, I’ll share them.
​
​Here’s the link to my private investor group.​

3. Follow me on LinkedIn.
I’ve been in real estate for 40+ years (yes, I’m that old), and I’m posting more frequently now as I try to make sense of this market and because I want to learn from other people’s comments.
​
​Find me on LinkedIn here.​

***
I’m an eternal optimist, navigating a thick fog. I’d love some company along the way.

Thanks,
Adam

My next LinkedIn Mastermind will start next Tuesday, April 29, at noon pacific.

Four, one hour sessions over two weeks with me, live, where you'll become recognized as an industry leader, dramatically increase your lead-generation, and find more investors, clients, and customers.

Exclusively for real estate professionals and investors.

Use coupon code 100APRIL25 before April 25th for $100 off enrollment.
​

Learn more and enroll here

​​If this is your first time seeing this newsletter, please click here to subscribe.​

***

Connect with me on LinkedIn

Subscribe to my YouTube channel